Decision Support · 2025-26 · GW38
Premier League
Dashboard.
Who is still alive? Who is in danger? Who is already safe? Tier-aware probabilities, threat signals and live transfer momentum — all in one place to inform your next FPL decision.
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Live this week · Market Decision
This Week's Transfer Desk · GW1
GW 1–1· 10 players18d 2h left until deadline
Race Tables
GW
Title Race · GW38
#
Team
Pts (GD)
Projected
Max
Status
Title %
Note
Title probabilities come from a 4 000-run Monte-Carlo simulation of the remaining fixtures. "Projected" extrapolates current points-per-game; "Max" assumes wins from here on out. Click any row for the full breakdown.
01Arsenal FC85 (+44)85 pts85 ptsCHAMPION100.0%Premier League title mathematically won.
02Manchester City FC78 (+42)78 pts78 ptsOUT0.0%Effectively out of the title race.
03Manchester United FC71 (+19)71 pts71 ptsOUT0.0%Effectively out of the title race.
04Aston Villa FC65 (+7)65 pts65 ptsOUT0.0%Effectively out of the title race.
05Liverpool FC60 (+10)60 pts60 ptsOUT0.0%Effectively out of the title race.
06AFC Bournemouth57 (+4)57 pts57 ptsOUT0.0%Effectively out of the title race.
Europe Race · GW38 · cutoff 53 pts
#
Team
Pts (GD)
Gap
Proj/Max
Status
CL · EL · ECL · Any
Note
This table shows which teams are still alive in the race for European qualification. Probabilities account for current standings, points-per-game projections and the 2025-26 EPL slot allocation (5 CL · 1 EL · 1 ECL). Click a row for the full breakdown.
01
Arsenal FC
85 (+44)+32above cutoffProj 85Max 85QUALIFIEDCL 100%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 100%Champions League secured — already through to the European elite.CL LOCKEDLOCKED
02
Manchester City FC
78 (+42)+25above cutoffProj 78Max 78QUALIFIEDCL 100%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 100%Champions League secured — already through to the European elite.CL LOCKEDLOCKED
03
Manchester United FC
71 (+19)+18above cutoffProj 71Max 71QUALIFIEDCL 100%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 100%Champions League secured — already through to the European elite.CL LOCKEDLOCKED
04
Aston Villa FC
65 (+7)+12above cutoffProj 65Max 65QUALIFIEDCL 100%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 100%Champions League secured — already through to the European elite.CL LOCKEDLOCKED
05
Liverpool FC
60 (+10)+7above cutoffProj 60Max 60QUALIFIEDCL 100%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 100%Champions League secured — already through to the European elite.CL LOCKEDLOCKED
06
AFC Bournemouth
57 (+4)+4above cutoffProj 57Max 57QUALIFIEDCL 0%·EL 100%·ECL 0%Any Europe 100%European football guaranteed; still fighting for a Champions League spot.EL LOCKEDLOCKED
07
Sunderland AFC
54 (-6)+1above cutoffProj 54Max 54QUALIFIEDCL 0%·EL 0%·ECL 100%Any Europe 100%European qualification effectively secured.ECL LOCKEDLOCKED
08
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
53 (+6)−1to EuropeProj 53Max 53OUTCL 0%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 0%Effectively out of the European race for this season.OUT OF RACEOUT
09
Brentford FC
53 (+3)−1to EuropeProj 53Max 53OUTCL 0%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 0%Effectively out of the European race for this season.OUT OF RACEOUT
10
Chelsea FC
52 (+6)−2to EuropeProj 52Max 52OUTCL 0%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 0%Effectively out of the European race for this season.OUT OF RACEOUT
Relegation Battle · GW38 · 18th place 39 pts
#
Team
Pts (GD)
Safety
Proj/Max
Status
Survive · Relegate
Note
Estimates each team's survival chances using current points, projected points-per-game and a 4 000-run remaining-fixture simulation. Bottom three are relegated. Teams already mathematically safe are hidden once everyone above them is also out of the race. Click any row for the full breakdown.
15
Crystal Palace FC
45 (-10)+4above dropProj 45Max 45SAFESurvive 100%Relegate 0%Effectively safe — the maths no longer threatens this side.LOCKED
16
Nottingham Forest FC
44 (-3)+3above dropProj 44Max 44SAFESurvive 100%Relegate 0%Effectively safe — the maths no longer threatens this side.LOCKED
17
Tottenham Hotspur FC
41 (-9)+0above dropProj 41Max 41SAFESurvive 100%Relegate 0%Effectively safe — the maths no longer threatens this side.LOCKED
18
West Ham United FC
39 (-19)−2to safetyProj 39Max 39RELEGATEDSurvive 0%Relegate 100%Mathematically relegated — points gap to safety can no longer be closed.RELEGATED
19
Burnley FC
22 (-37)−19to safetyProj 22Max 22RELEGATEDSurvive 0%Relegate 100%Mathematically relegated — points gap to safety can no longer be closed.RELEGATED
20
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
20 (-41)−21to safetyProj 20Max 20RELEGATEDSurvive 0%Relegate 100%Mathematically relegated — points gap to safety can no longer be closed.RELEGATED
Threat vs Goals
Goals minus expected from FPL threat · relevant MID/FWD only · 108 players
Delta (G − xG)
-12–12
Overperformers (20)
MCIHaalandFWD
HIGHG 27xG 15.2Δ +11.8
Premium TrustCold StarData Analyst
BREThiagoFWD
HIGHG 22xG 11.7Δ +10.3
Data Analyst
NFOGibbs-WhiteMID
HIGHG 15xG 8.36Δ +6.64
Data Analyst
MCISemenyoMID
HIGHG 17xG 10.47Δ +6.53
Cold StarData Analyst
ARSGyökeresFWD
HIGHG 14xG 7.72Δ +6.28
Data Analyst
CHEJoão PedroFWD
HIGHG 15xG 9.09Δ +5.91
Cold StarData Analyst
CHEWelbeckFWD
HIGHG 13xG 8.03Δ +4.97
Differential KingData Analyst
CHEPalmerMID
HIGHG 10xG 5.47Δ +4.53
NEWOsulaFWD
HIGHG 7xG 2.84Δ +4.16
Differential King
CRYMatetaFWD
HIGHG 12xG 7.86Δ +4.14
Differential KingData Analyst
NEWBruno G.MID
HIGHG 9xG 4.88Δ +4.12
Differential KingData Analyst
LEEWilsonMID
HIGHG 10xG 6.01Δ +3.99
Differential KingData Analyst
AVLWatkinsFWD
HIGHG 16xG 12.06Δ +3.94
Data Analyst
LEECalvert-LewinFWD
HIGHG 14xG 10.26Δ +3.74
Cold StarData Analyst
LEEOkaforMID
HIGHG 8xG 4.35Δ +3.65
Differential KingData Analyst
EVEDewsbury-HallMID
HIGHG 8xG 4.38Δ +3.62
Differential KingData Analyst
CRYSarrMID
MEDIUMG 9xG 6.01Δ +2.99
Data Analyst
MUNB.FernandesMID
MEDIUMG 9xG 6.14Δ +2.86
Premium TrustCold StarData Analyst
TOTRicharlisonFWD
MEDIUMG 11xG 8.15Δ +2.85
Differential KingData Analyst
CHEEnzoMID
MEDIUMG 10xG 7.47Δ +2.53
Differential KingData Analyst
Underperformers (10)
MUNAmadMID
HIGHG 2xG 6Δ -4
Differential KingData Analyst
BOUBrooksMID
HIGHG 1xG 4.34Δ -3.34
Differential King
BHAMintehMID
HIGHG 3xG 6.17Δ -3.17
Differential KingData Analyst
AVLGarnachoMID
MEDIUMG 1xG 3.99Δ -2.99
Differential King
ARSMartinelliMID
MEDIUMG 1xG 3.9Δ -2.9
Differential King
NFOHutchinsonMID
MEDIUMG 1xG 3.56Δ -2.56
Differential King
FULKingMID
MEDIUMG 1xG 3.36Δ -2.36
Differential King
MCISavinhoMID
MEDIUMG 1xG 3.21Δ -2.21
Differential King
FULBobbMID
MEDIUMG 0xG 2.05Δ -2.05
Differential King
NEWWillockMID
MEDIUMG 0xG 2.04Δ -2.04
Differential King
Reading Player Tags
· hover any tag for the full description● Opportunity
Greens & teals — safe picks, favourable matchups, buy-low chances.
Safe PickFavourite OpponentBuy Low
● Quality
Yellows & golds — premium trust, underlying-stat darlings, big-game talismans.
Premium TrustData AnalystBig-Game Player
● Hot / Form
Oranges — players riding red-hot recent form or capable of high variance.
Form HunterChaos Manager
● Warning
Reds — regression risks, bad matchups, FDR traps. Tread carefully.
Regression RiskBad MatchupFDR Trap
● Differential
Purples & blues — bold low-ownership picks, breakouts, dormant stars.
Differential KingBreakout PickCold Star
News Signals
(0 active)Poslední důležité přestupy
Incoming Radar →
Aladji BambaMIDMonaco → Newcastle United€36m2026-07-24
Christos TzolisFWDClub Brugge → Arsenal£34m2026-07-23
Issahaku FatawuFWDLeicester City → Ipswich Town€23m2026-07-21Abdul FatawuLeicester → Ipswich Town£20m2026-07-21
João GomesMIDWolverhampton Wanderers → Aston Villa£38m2026-07-20Transfer Momentum
BandwagonsShow all →
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Sell-offsShow all →
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Marquee Fixtures
Six-Pointers (by importance)
GW1MCIvsBOU
HIGH · 75GW2AVLvsARS
HIGH · 75GW1NFOvsLEE
HIGH · 65GW3NFOvsTOT
HIGH · 65GW3BREvsSUN
HIGH · 60GW1BHAvsAVL
MED · 50Rivalries
GW3ARSvsCHE
MED · 40