Decision Support · 2025-26 · GW1

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Who is still alive? Who is in danger? Who is already safe? Tier-aware probabilities, threat signals and live transfer momentum — all in one place to inform your next FPL decision.

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GW 2–2· 10 players1d 13h left until deadline

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Race Tables

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Title Race · GW1

Team

Pts (GD)

Projected

Max

Status

Title %

Note

Title probabilities come from a 4 000-run Monte-Carlo simulation of the remaining fixtures. "Projected" extrapolates current points-per-game; "Max" assumes wins from here on out. Click any row for the full breakdown.

01Brighton & Hove Albion FC3 (+4)114 pts114 ptsFAVOURITE49.8%Highest title probability (50%) — controls its own destiny.

02Arsenal FC3 (+3)114 pts114 ptsIN RACE25.1%Realistic title chance (25%) — every dropped point matters.

03Brentford FC3 (+3)114 pts114 ptsDANGER13.0%Still alive (13%), but 0 pt gap to top is unforgiving.

04Everton FC3 (+2)114 pts114 ptsDANGER6.2%Still alive (6%), but 0 pt gap to top is unforgiving.

05Hull City AFC3 (+2)114 pts114 ptsNEEDS HELP3.4%Needs the leaders to drop points to stay realistic.

06Chelsea FC3 (+1)114 pts114 ptsNEEDS HELP1.4%Needs the leaders to drop points to stay realistic.

Europe Race · GW1 · cutoff 3 pts

Team

Pts (GD)

Gap

Proj/Max

Status

CL · EL · ECL · Any

Note

This table shows which teams are still alive in the race for European qualification. Probabilities account for current standings, points-per-game projections and the 2025-26 EPL slot allocation (5 CL · 1 EL · 1 ECL). Click a row for the full breakdown.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

CL RACE

3 (+4)+0above cutoffProj 114Max 114LIKELYCL 59%·EL 9%·ECL 10%Any Europe 77%Very likely to qualify, but not yet mathematically secured.

Arsenal FC

CL RACE

3 (+3)+0above cutoffProj 114Max 114LIKELYCL 60%·EL 8%·ECL 10%Any Europe 79%Very likely to qualify, but not yet mathematically secured.

Brentford FC

CL RACE

3 (+3)+0above cutoffProj 114Max 114LIKELYCL 61%·EL 8%·ECL 10%Any Europe 78%Very likely to qualify, but not yet mathematically secured.

Everton FC

CL RACE

3 (+2)+0above cutoffProj 114Max 114LIKELYCL 59%·EL 9%·ECL 11%Any Europe 78%Very likely to qualify, but not yet mathematically secured.

Hull City AFC

CL RACE

3 (+2)+0above cutoffProj 114Max 114LIKELYCL 60%·EL 9%·ECL 10%Any Europe 78%Very likely to qualify, but not yet mathematically secured.

Chelsea FC

CL RACE

3 (+1)+0above cutoffProj 114Max 114LIKELYCL 58%·EL 9%·ECL 10%Any Europe 78%Very likely to qualify, but not yet mathematically secured.

Ipswich Town FC

CL RACE

3 (+1)+0above cutoffProj 114Max 114LIKELYCL 54%·EL 13%·ECL 11%Any Europe 79%Very likely to qualify, but not yet mathematically secured.

Manchester City FC

CL RACE

3 (+1)−1to EuropeProj 114Max 114IN RACECL 48%·EL 18%·ECL 13%Any Europe 78%Outside Europe but still alive — needs to overturn a 1pt deficit.

Leeds United FC

CL RACE

3 (+1)−1to EuropeProj 114Max 114IN RACECL 42%·EL 19%·ECL 15%Any Europe 75%Outside Europe but still alive — needs to overturn a 1pt deficit.

Liverpool FC

OUT OF RACEOUT

1 (+0)−3to EuropeProj 38Max 112OUTCL 0%·EL 0%·ECL 0%Any Europe 0%Effectively out of the European race for this season.

Relegation Battle · GW1 · 18th place 0 pts

Team

Pts (GD)

Safety

Proj/Max

Status

Survive · Relegate

Note

Estimates each team's survival chances using current points, projected points-per-game and a 4 000-run remaining-fixture simulation. Bottom three are relegated. Teams already mathematically safe are hidden once everyone above them is also out of the race. Click any row for the full breakdown.

Fulham FC

0 (-1)+0above dropProj 0Max 111LIKELY SAFESurvive 92%Relegate 8%Likely to stay up, though a winless streak could re-open the question.

AFC Bournemouth

0 (-1)+0above dropProj 0Max 111LIKELY SAFESurvive 88%Relegate 12%Likely to stay up, though a winless streak could re-open the question.

Sunderland AFC

0 (-1)+0above dropProj 0Max 111AT RISKSurvive 83%Relegate 17%Still above the line, but the relegation maths is not yet settled.

Nottingham Forest FC

0 (-1)+0above dropProj 0Max 111AT RISKSurvive 74%Relegate 26%Still above the line, but the relegation maths is not yet settled.

Crystal Palace FC

0 (-2)+0above dropProj 0Max 111DANGERSurvive 63%Relegate 37%Survival realistic but margin razor-thin — drop in form would be costly.

Manchester United FC

0 (-2)+0above dropProj 0Max 111DANGERSurvive 53%Relegate 47%Survival realistic but margin razor-thin — drop in form would be costly.

Coventry City FC

0 (-3)+0above dropProj 0Max 111DANGERSurvive 49%Relegate 51%Survival realistic but margin razor-thin — drop in form would be costly.

Tottenham Hotspur FC

0 (-3)+0above dropProj 0Max 111DANGERSurvive 49%Relegate 51%Survival realistic but margin razor-thin — drop in form would be costly.

Aston Villa FC

0 (-4)+0above dropProj 0Max 111DANGERSurvive 49%Relegate 51%Survival realistic but margin razor-thin — drop in form would be costly.

Threat vs Goals

Goals minus expected from FPL threat · relevant MID/FWD only · 110 players

Delta (G − xG)

-12–12

Overperformers (0)

None match the current filter

Underperformers (0)

None match the current filter

Reading Player Tags

· hover any tag for the full description

● Opportunity

Greens & teals — safe picks, favourable matchups, buy-low chances.

Safe PickFavourite OpponentBuy Low

● Quality

Yellows & golds — premium trust, underlying-stat darlings, big-game talismans.

Premium TrustData AnalystBig-Game Player

● Hot / Form

Oranges — players riding red-hot recent form or capable of high variance.

Form HunterChaos Manager

● Warning

Reds — regression risks, bad matchups, FDR traps. Tread carefully.

Regression RiskBad MatchupFDR Trap

● Differential

Purples & blues — bold low-ownership picks, breakouts, dormant stars.

Differential KingBreakout PickCold Star

News Signals

(0 active)

Hlídač varuje

Otevřít Hlídače →

🚨 Pasti — komunita kupuje, data varují

HavertzArsenal · £7.5Nejistá minutáž (19 %)

ØdegaardArsenal · £6.5Nejistá minutáž (45 %)

HinshelwoodBrighton · £6.0Nejistá minutáž (58 %)

💎 Gemy — trh je přehlíží

Van de VenSpurs · £5.0Diferenciál (4.3 %)

CashAston Villa · £4.5Diferenciál (7.9 %)

Van HeckeSpurs · £5.0Diferenciál (9.9 %)

Poslední důležité přestupy

Incoming Radar →

Nobel MendyDEFRayo Vallecano → Hull CityUndisclosed2026-08-12

Pep ChavarríaDEFRayo Vallecano → Chelsea£16.3m2026-08-12

Gustavo HamerMIDSheffield United → Coventry CityUndisclosed2026-08-12

Shea CharlesMIDSouthampton → Fulham£30m2026-08-11

Ousmane DiomandeDEFSporting CP → Nottingham Forest£34m2026-08-11

Transfer Momentum

BandwagonsShow all →

BHADe CuyperDEF

EARLY

OWN 6.7%+360k

Breakout PickForm Hunter

BREM.SangaréMID

EARLY

OWN 7.4%+302k

Breakout PickForm Hunter

CHEJoão PedroFWD

CROWDED

OWN 66.9%+256k

Form HunterSafe Pick

BREKayodeDEF

EARLY

OWN 6.7%+233k

Breakout PickForm Hunter

ARSCalafioriDEF

CROWDED

OWN 41.4%+226k

Form HunterSafe Pick

Sell-offsShow all →

TOTPedro PorroDEF

EARLY

OWN 13.8%-269k

Chaos Manager

NFOGibbs-WhiteMID

DOUBT75%EARLY

OWN 9.4%-177k

ARSGyökeresFWD

EARLY

OWN 7.3%-164k

Chaos Manager

AVLWatkinsFWD

EARLY

OWN 8.6%-164k

Chaos Manager

ARSKonsaDEF

EARLY

OWN 11.2%-145k

Chaos Manager

Marquee Fixtures

Six-Pointers (by importance)

GW3ARSvsCHE

HIGH · 90

GW3FULvsCRY

HIGH · 75

GW3NFOvsTOT

HIGH · 75

GW2SUNvsFUL

HIGH · 60

GW4LIVvsFUL

HIGH · 60

GW4LEEvsNEW

HIGH · 60

Rivalries

GW3ARSvsCHE

HIGH · 90

GW4MUNvsMCI

HIGH · 60

Premier LeagueDashboard.

Race Tables

Threat vs Goals

Reading Player Tags

News Signals

Hlídač varuje

Poslední důležité přestupy

Transfer Momentum

Marquee Fixtures

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